Santos FC v 
CR Flamengo
The model’s call
Santos win 28%
Draw 21%
Flamengo win 51%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.0–1.9
Both teams to score 55%
The read
Our model favours CR Flamengo to secure victory in this Brasileirão encounter, assigning them a 57% win probability compared to Santos FC's 22%. Flamengo's attacking potency is reflected in the expected goals data, with the model projecting them to out-score their hosts significantly (1.9 xG vs 0.9 xG). Santos will need to overcome away-day disadvantages and recent form headwinds to challenge the visiting side's quality.