SE Palmeiras v 
EC Bahia
The model’s call
Palmeiras win 69%
Draw 13%
Bahia win 17%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 2.0–0.7
Both teams to score 44%
The read
Our model favours SE Palmeiras to secure the points at home, assigning them a 67% win probability against EC Bahia. The Brasilerão leaders benefit from home advantage and superior form, with their expected goals advantage (2.0 to 0.8) suggesting they should dominate possession and create clearer chances. While a Bahia upset or draw remains possible, Palmeiras' attacking threat makes them clear favourites in this fixture.