Fluminense FC v 
Coritiba FBC
The model’s call
Fluminense win 45%
Draw 24%
Coritiba win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.5–1.1
Both teams to score 51%
The read
Our model slightly favours Fluminense FC at home, giving them a 43% win probability against Coritiba FBC. The hosts' advantage is modest—home ground support and recent form provide a small edge, but the model's expected goals (1.4-1.1) suggest this will be a competitive, low-scoring affair. A draw at 26% probability remains very much in play, with Coritiba's away record keeping this match tight.