RB Bragantino v 
Mirassol FC
The model’s call
Bragantino win 56%
Draw 19%
Mirassol win 24%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.4–0.7
Both teams to score 38%
The read
Our model gives RB Bragantino a slight edge over Mirassol FC, with a home win favoured at 50%. Bragantino's home advantage and expected goals advantage (1.3 to 0.8) support the pick, though the draw and away win probabilities combined at 49% reflect the competitive nature of this fixture. The model's most likely outcome is a narrow 1-0 victory for the hosts.