Botafogo FR v 
CR Vasco da Gama
The model’s call
Botafogo win 54%
Draw 19%
Vasco da Gama win 26%
Likely score 2–1
Expected goals 2.1–1.2
Both teams to score 62%
The read
Our model favours Botafogo FR at home with a 56% win probability in this Rio derby clash. The hosts benefit from home advantage and a superior expected goals margin (2.2–1.3), suggesting they should create and finish more clear-cut chances. However, Vasco da Gama remain competitive with a 24% chance of an upset, so this remains an evenly-matched contest rather than a foregone conclusion.