CA Paranaense v 
CA Mineiro
The model’s call
Paranaense win 51%
Draw 22%
Mineiro win 27%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.4–0.8
Both teams to score 40%
The read
Our model favours CA Paranaense to edge out CA Mineiro, with a 52% probability of a home victory compared to 24% for the visitors. The advantage comes down to home-ground support and current form, with the model projecting Paranaense to create more clear-cut chances (1.5 expected goals vs 0.8). The most likely outcome is a narrow 1-0 win, though a draw remains a realistic possibility at nearly a quarter of the projected scenarios.