EC Vitória v 
Cruzeiro EC
The model’s call
Vitória win 42%
Draw 25%
Cruzeiro win 33%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.4–1.1
Both teams to score 51%
The read
Our model gives EC Vitória a slight edge at home with a 43% win probability, though this is a competitive matchup where a draw (26%) or Cruzeiro EC victory (31%) remain very much in play. Vitória's home advantage and current form support the favoured outcome, though the expected goals tally of 1.4-1.1 suggests a tight contest with limited clear-cut chances for either side.