São Paulo FC v 
SC Internacional
The model’s call
São Paulo win 45%
Draw 24%
Internacional win 30%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.2–0.8
Both teams to score 41%
The read
Our model gives São Paulo FC a slight edge at home with a 45% win probability against SC Internacional, though this is a competitive fixture with the away side given a respectable 28% chance. The home advantage and São Paulo's underlying metrics—reflected in the expected goals differential of 1.2 to 0.8—favour the hosts, but the relatively high draw probability (27%) suggests both teams are evenly matched in key areas. The most likely outcome in our simulation is a narrow 1-0 home victory.