Mirassol FC v 
Botafogo FR
The model’s call
Mirassol win 42%
Draw 25%
Botafogo win 33%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.4–1.3
Both teams to score 54%
The read
Our model gives Mirassol FC a slight edge at home with a 42% win probability, though this is a relatively competitive fixture. The hosts benefit from home advantage and recent form, but Botafogo FR's quality means a draw remains entirely plausible at 25%. Expected goals favour Mirassol narrowly (1.5 vs 1.3), suggesting the model sees the home side as marginally more likely to create chances, though the most likely outcome is actually a 1-1 draw.