CA Mineiro v 
Chapecoense AF
The model’s call
Mineiro win 65%
Draw 15%
Chapecoense win 20%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.9–0.8
Both teams to score 48%
The read
Our model favours CA Mineiro at home with a 64% win probability, reflecting their home advantage and superior attacking potential. The xG breakdown of 2.0-0.9 suggests CA Mineiro should dominate possession and create clearer chances, while Chapecoense will struggle to generate meaningful opportunities on the road. The most likely outcome is a 1-0 home victory, though Chapecoense's defensive solidity means a draw remains a credible result at 18%.