CA Paranaense v 
EC Bahia
The model’s call
Paranaense win 53%
Draw 21%
Bahia win 27%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.7–1.0
Both teams to score 51%
The read
Our model gives CA Paranaense a slim edge at home, with the model favoring them at 52% to win compared to EC Bahia's 25% chance. The expected goals difference (1.7 to 1.0) suggests the hosts should create slightly more opportunities, though the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw at 22%. Home advantage appears decisive here, though this remains competitive—Bahia shouldn't be underestimated on the road.