Mirassol FC v 
EC Vitória
The model’s call
Mirassol win 45%
Draw 24%
Vitória win 31%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.3–1.0
Both teams to score 44%
The read
Our model gives Mirassol FC a slight edge at home with a 43% win probability against EC Vitória, though this is a competitive fixture with the away side holding a respectable 30% chance. The home advantage and Mirassol's form appear to be the key drivers here, reflected in an expected goals advantage of 1.2 to 1.0. However, the relatively close probabilities suggest this could easily go either way, with nearly three in ten chances of a draw.