Coritiba FBC v 
CA Paranaense
The model’s call
Coritiba win 40%
Draw 26%
Paranaense win 34%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.1–1.2
Both teams to score 45%
The read
Our model gives Coritiba FBC a slight edge in this Paranaense derby, with a 42% chance of a home victory compared to a 32% probability for the visitors. The home advantage and Coritiba's marginally superior expected goals (1.2 vs 1.0) underpin the prediction, though this remains a closely contested fixture—a draw is the most likely single outcome at 26%. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair in which set pieces and individual moments could prove decisive.