EC Bahia v 
Clube do Remo
The model’s call
Bahia win 55%
Draw 19%
Clube do Remo win 26%
Likely score 2–1
Expected goals 2.1–1.1
Both teams to score 59%
The read
Our model favours EC Bahia to take three points at home, with a 57% win probability against Clube do Remo. The Tricolor's advantage stems from home-ground benefit and superior expected output, with the model projecting 2.1 expected goals for the hosts compared to 1.1 for the visitors. A 2-1 scoreline emerges as the most likely outcome, though Remo's road resilience means a draw (20%) or upset (23%) remain plausible.