EC Vitória v 
Grêmio FBPA
The model’s call
Vitória win 46%
Draw 24%
Grêmio win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.3–1.0
Both teams to score 46%
The read
Our model slightly favours EC Vitória at home, with a 43% probability of victory compared to Grêmio's 30% chance. The Bahia-based side benefit from home advantage in this Brasileirão encounter, though the gap is modest—reflecting relatively balanced underlying metrics. The expected goals projection of 1.2 to 1.0 suggests a tight, low-scoring affair, with the most likely outcome a narrow 1-0 home win.