São Paulo FC v 
CA Mineiro
The model’s call
São Paulo win 42%
Draw 26%
Mineiro win 32%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.3–0.9
Both teams to score 43%
The read
Our model gives São Paulo FC a narrow edge at home, assessing a 49% win probability against CA Mineiro's 26%. The Tricolor's home advantage appears decisive in this Brasileirão encounter, supported by an expected-goals advantage of 1.5 to 0.9. While the hosts are favoured, a quarter of the model's probability mass sits on a draw, reflecting CA Mineiro's capability to frustrate and compete away from home.