Fluminense FC v 
CR Vasco da Gama
The model’s call
Fluminense win 56%
Draw 19%
Vasco da Gama win 25%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.8–1.0
Both teams to score 52%
The read
Our model gives Fluminense FC a 56% probability of victory against CR Vasco da Gama, backed by home advantage and superior attacking metrics. The model expects a competitive match with Fluminense creating more scoring opportunities (1.9 xG to 1.0), though the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 21% probability. Recent form and their home record position Fluminense as favourites, but Vasco's away threat means this should be closely contested.