Coritiba FBC v 
Mirassol FC
The model’s call
Coritiba win 51%
Draw 21%
Mirassol win 28%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.3–0.9
Both teams to score 44%
The read
Our model rates Coritiba FBC as slight favourites against Mirassol FC, backing a home win with 50% probability compared to 25% for an away victory. The home advantage appears decisive here, with Coritiba's expected goals (1.4) notably outpacing Mirassol's (0.9), suggesting the hosts should create more clear-cut chances. The most likely outcome in the model's view is a narrow 1-0 Coritiba victory, though a draw remains plausible at 24%.