SC Corinthians Paulista v 
Chapecoense AF
The model’s call
Corinthians win 70%
Draw 13%
Chapecoense win 17%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.8–0.6
Both teams to score 37%
The read
Our model favours SC Corinthians Paulista at home, giving them a 66% chance of victory against Chapecoense AF. The hosts' advantage is built on their home-ground strength and superior attacking threat, with expected goals of 1.7 compared to Chapecoense's 0.6. While a Corinthians win is the most likely outcome, the model still assigns meaningful probability to a draw (19%) and upset (15%), reflecting the inherent unpredictability of football.