RB Bragantino v 
EC Bahia
The model’s call
Bragantino win 53%
Draw 20%
Bahia win 27%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.7–1.0
Both teams to score 53%
The read
Our model slightly favours RB Bragantino at home with a 51% win probability, though this remains a competitive fixture. The hosts' home advantage and attacking potential (1.6 expected goals) give them the edge over EC Bahia, who are projected for 1.0 xG. However, with a draw at 23% and Bahia's away win probability at 26%, the model suggests this could be a tightly contested match, with the most likely scoreline a 1-1 draw.