Mirassol FC v 
SE Palmeiras
The model’s call
Mirassol win 25%
Draw 20%
Palmeiras win 55%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.6–1.3
Both teams to score 34%
The read
Our model favours SE Palmeiras in this Brasileirão clash at Mirassol FC, giving the away side a 49% chance of victory compared to 25% for the hosts. The expected goals data suggests a tight, low-scoring affair (0.7-1.2), with the most likely result being a narrow 0-1 away win. Palmeiras' strength is reflected in their higher win probability despite playing on the road, indicating superior form or squad quality is outweighing home advantage in this matchup.