Grêmio FBPA v 
Chapecoense AF
The model’s call
Grêmio win 60%
Draw 17%
Chapecoense win 22%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.7–0.8
Both teams to score 47%
The read
Our model favours Grêmio FBPA at home with a 63% win probability against Chapecoense AF. The hosts' advantage is built on home-ground strength and a significant expected-goals differential of 1.8 to 0.8, suggesting superior attacking capability and defensive solidity. While a Grêmio victory is most likely, Chapecoense will have chances to disrupt the prediction.