CR Flamengo v 
Botafogo FR
The model’s call
Flamengo win 67%
Draw 14%
Botafogo win 19%
Likely score 2–0
Expected goals 2.5–0.9
Both teams to score 55%
The read
Our model favours CR Flamengo to win this Rio de Janeiro derby, assigning them a 68% probability of victory. The home advantage at their stadium, combined with their superior expected goals output (2.4 vs 0.9), positions Flamengo as clear favourites. Botafogo face an uphill task away from home, with the model projecting a most likely scoreline of 2-0 to the hosts.