EC Bahia v 
SC Internacional
The model’s call
Bahia win 48%
Draw 22%
Internacional win 30%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.5–1.1
Both teams to score 53%
The read
Our model gives EC Bahia a slight edge at home with a 43% win probability, though the picture is relatively balanced with Internacional given a 31% chance to take all three points. Bahia's home advantage appears decisive in this matchup, as the hosts are expected to create marginally more chances (1.4 xG) despite Internacional's ability to stay compact on the road (1.1 xG). However, the relatively low expected goal totals suggest this could be a tight contest, with a draw at 25% representing a genuine possibility.