CA Mineiro v 
EC Vitória
The model’s call
Mineiro win 50%
Draw 22%
Vitória win 28%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.4–1.0
Both teams to score 48%
The read
Our model gives CA Mineiro a slight edge at home with a 44% win probability, though this is a competitive fixture with EC Vitória having a respectable 30% chance of victory. The expected goals suggest a closely matched encounter (1.4-1.1 to the hosts), with the most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw at 26%. CA Mineiro's home advantage appears to be the decisive factor, but low expected goals indicate neither side is expected to dominate.