CA Paranaense v 
Fluminense FC
The model’s call
Paranaense win 51%
Draw 22%
Fluminense win 28%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.4–0.9
Both teams to score 44%
The read
CA Paranaense are slight favourites at home against Fluminense FC, with our model giving them a 47% chance of victory compared to Fluminense's 27%. The home side's advantage is evident in the expected goals breakdown (1.4 to 0.9), suggesting they should create more clear opportunities. However, this remains a competitive matchup—the 25% draw probability highlights the margin between the teams is relatively tight, and away-day resilience could play a role.