EC Vitória v 
EC Bahia
The model’s call
Vitória win 42%
Draw 25%
Bahia win 34%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.5–1.4
Both teams to score 59%
The read
Our model gives EC Vitória a slight edge at home with a 44% win probability, though this is a competitive fixture with EC Bahia's 32% away win chance suggesting genuine uncertainty. Vitória's home advantage and expected goals advantage (1.6 to 1.3) favour the hosts, but the most likely outcome according to the model is a 1-1 draw, reflecting how closely matched these sides appear.