Santos FC v 
Mirassol FC
The model’s call
Santos win 45%
Draw 24%
Mirassol win 31%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.4–1.1
Both teams to score 51%
The read
Our model gives Santos FC a narrow edge at home with a 40% win probability, though a draw (26%) or Mirassol upset (33%) remain realistic outcomes. The hosts benefit from home advantage and their slight xG advantage (1.3 to 1.2), but the relatively close probabilities reflect a competitive match where neither side dominates the underlying metrics.