Cruzeiro EC v 
CR Flamengo
The model’s call
Cruzeiro win 30%
Draw 24%
Flamengo win 47%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.9–1.7
Both teams to score 48%
The read
Our model favours CR Flamengo in this Brasileirão clash, giving the visitors a 50% chance of victory compared to Cruzeiro EC's 25%, with a 25% draw probability. The away win reflects Flamengo's superior form and attacking threat, with expected goals heavily tilted in their favour at 1.6 versus Cruzeiro's 0.8. A narrow 0-1 away victory emerges as the most likely outcome, suggesting a competitive contest decided by clinical finishing rather than dominance.