Coritiba FBC v 
SC Corinthians Paulista
The model’s call
Coritiba win 40%
Draw 26%
Corinthians win 34%
Likely score 0–0
Expected goals 1.0–0.9
Both teams to score 38%
The read
Our model favours Coritiba FBC at home with a 43% win probability, though this remains a competitive fixture with Corinthians' away win at 29%. The Paranaense side's home advantage and recent form underpin the prediction, with expected goals suggesting a tight encounter around 1-0. However, Corinthians' quality means a draw (28%) or away victory remain realistic outcomes.