Chapecoense AF v 
São Paulo FC
The model’s call
Chapecoense win 31%
Draw 25%
São Paulo win 44%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 1.0–1.5
Both teams to score 49%
The read
Our model favours São Paulo FC in this Brasileirão encounter, giving them a 52% win probability against Chapecoense AF's 25%. The visitors' advantage stems from their superior form and squad quality, with expected goals suggesting they should create the better chances (1.7 to 0.9). Despite playing away, São Paulo's consistency makes them clear favourites, though Chapecoense will hope to exploit home advantage to disrupt that narrative.