São Paulo FC v 
Coritiba FBC
The model’s call
São Paulo win 41%
Draw 26%
Coritiba win 33%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.4–1.0
Both teams to score 46%
The read
Our model gives São Paulo FC a slight edge at home with a 43% win probability against Coritiba FBC, though this remains a competitive fixture with meaningful chances for all outcomes. The home advantage and São Paulo's underlying xG of 1.3 compared to Coritiba's 1.0 explain the model's lean toward the hosts, though the relatively close probabilities suggest this will be a closely contested match.