Mirassol FC v 
CR Flamengo
The model’s call
Mirassol win 28%
Draw 22%
Flamengo win 50%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.8–1.5
Both teams to score 42%
The read
Our model favors CR Flamengo in this Brasileirão clash, giving them a 50% chance of victory compared to Mirassol FC's 25%. Flamengo's superior underlying metrics—reflected in an expected goals advantage of 1.4 to 0.8—suggest they should dominate possession and create clearer chances. The away side's form and quality edge make them clear favorites, though a draw remains plausible at 25%, and Mirassol's home support shouldn't be discounted entirely.