Fluminense FC v 
SE Palmeiras
The model’s call
Fluminense win 28%
Draw 22%
Palmeiras win 50%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.8–1.3
Both teams to score 41%
The read
Our model favours SE Palmeiras to take all three points at the Maracanã, giving them a 46% win probability compared to Fluminense's 28%. Palmeiras' superior form and attacking threat—reflected in an expected goals range of 1.3—make them the statistical outsiders here, though Fluminense's home advantage keeps the contest competitive. The model's most likely scoreline is a narrow 0-1 away victory, suggesting a tightly contested match where efficiency will likely decide the outcome.