SC Corinthians Paulista v 
Cruzeiro EC
The model’s call
Corinthians win 52%
Draw 21%
Cruzeiro win 26%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.3–0.7
Both teams to score 36%
The read
SC Corinthians Paulista are favoured by our model in this Brasileirão clash against Cruzeiro EC, with a 46% win probability compared to the visitor's 26%. Home advantage and recent form appear to be working in Corinthians' favour, reflected in an expected goals gap of 1.1 to 0.7. However, a draw remains a realistic outcome at 28%, and Cruzeiro will have their chances on the road.