Chapecoense AF v 
EC Bahia
The model’s call
Chapecoense win 30%
Draw 23%
Bahia win 47%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.3–1.9
Both teams to score 62%
The read
Our model favours EC Bahia on the road, giving the visitors a 49% chance of victory compared to Chapecoense AF's 28% at home. Despite playing away, Bahia's underlying metrics—reflected in an expected goals advantage of 1.9 to 1.3—suggest they should edge this matchup. The model sees a draw as the third most likely outcome, though a narrow Bahia win appears most probable.