Santos FC v 
CA Paranaense
The model’s call
Santos win 35%
Draw 27%
Paranaense win 38%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.2–1.4
Both teams to score 51%
The read
Our model favors CA Paranaense despite Santos FC's home advantage, giving the visitors a 41% win probability compared to 33% for the hosts. The expected goals differential (1.4 to 1.1) suggests a tightly contested encounter, with the most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw at 27%. Paranaense's superior form and underlying metrics appear to outweigh Santos' home-ground advantage in this Brasileirão fixture.