SE Palmeiras v 
SC Internacional
The model’s call
Palmeiras win 70%
Draw 13%
Internacional win 16%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.6–0.5
Both teams to score 33%
The read
Our model favours SE Palmeiras to take three points against SC Internacional, assigning them a 62% win probability compared to 17% for the visitors. Palmeiras' home advantage and stronger expected goals differential (1.4 to 0.6) underpin the prediction, though a draw at 21% remains a realistic outcome. The most likely scoreline points to a tight contest decided by fine margins.