CR Flamengo v 
EC Vitória
The model’s call
Flamengo win 68%
Draw 14%
Vitória win 18%
Likely score 2–0
Expected goals 2.2–0.7
Both teams to score 45%
The read
Our model favours CR Flamengo to secure victory at home, assigning them a 68% win probability against EC Vitória. The hosts' advantage is built on home-ground favour and superior expected goal output (2.0 to 0.7), suggesting they should control possession and create the clearer chances. While Vitória cannot be discounted entirely, Flamengo's attacking threat makes them clear favourites in this encounter.