Cruzeiro EC v 
Mirassol FC
The model’s call
Cruzeiro win 49%
Draw 22%
Mirassol win 29%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.2–1.0
Both teams to score 43%
The read
Our model gives Cruzeiro EC a narrow edge at home against Mirassol FC, with a 45% win probability compared to Mirassol's 29%. The hosts are favoured by home advantage and superior attacking metrics, with expected goals of 1.2 to Mirassol's 1.0, though the most likely outcome—a 1-0 Cruzeiro victory—reflects how tight this matchup could be. A draw remains a genuine possibility at 26%, signalling this is a competitive fixture rather than a clear-cut home win.