Coritiba FBC v 
Chapecoense AF
The model’s call
Coritiba win 67%
Draw 14%
Chapecoense win 19%
Likely score 2–0
Expected goals 2.1–0.9
Both teams to score 51%
The read
Our model strongly favours Coritiba FBC in this Brasileirão encounter, giving them a 70% chance of victory against Chapecoense AF. The home advantage at their stadium, combined with superior expected goals (2.3 to 0.8), underpins the prediction that Coritiba will dominate possession and chances. A 2-0 scoreline represents the most likely outcome, reflecting Coritiba's attacking superiority and defensive solidity.