EC Bahia v 
CR Vasco da Gama
The model’s call
Bahia win 55%
Draw 19%
Vasco da Gama win 26%
Likely score 2–1
Expected goals 2.0–1.2
Both teams to score 60%
The read
Our model favours EC Bahia to secure victory at home with a 54% win probability, significantly ahead of Vasco da Gama's 26% chance. The home advantage and Bahia's underlying expected goals figure of 2.0 suggest they should control play, though Vasco's away threat (1.3 xG) indicates they could trouble the hosts. A 2-1 scoreline is the most likely outcome, reflecting a competitive match where Bahia's home form gives them the edge.