EC Vitória v 
SE Palmeiras
The model’s call
Vitória win 25%
Draw 20%
Palmeiras win 55%
Likely score 0–1
Expected goals 0.7–1.5
Both teams to score 40%
The read
SE Palmeiras are heavy favourites in this Brasileirão clash at EC Vitória, with our model giving them a 50% chance of victory compared to just 25% for the hosts. The away side's advantage reflects their superior form and quality, though the expected goals range of 0.8–1.4 suggests a tight, low-scoring contest. A narrow Palmeiras win is the most likely outcome according to the model, but Vitória shouldn't be discounted entirely on home soil.