São Paulo FC v 
Santos FC
The model’s call
São Paulo win 48%
Draw 23%
Santos win 29%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.6–1.1
Both teams to score 52%
The read
Our model favors São Paulo FC at home, assigning them a 55% win probability against Santos FC. The hosts benefit from home advantage and slightly superior attacking output, with an expected goals differential of 0.9 in their favor. However, the relatively tight probabilities reflect the competitive nature of this Brasileirão fixture, with Santos capable of frustrating their opponents on the road.