Fluminense FC v 
EC Bahia
The model’s call
Fluminense win 47%
Draw 23%
Bahia win 30%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.7–1.3
Both teams to score 59%
The read
Fluminense FC are slight favourites at home against EC Bahia, with our model assigning them a 50% win probability compared to Bahia's 28%. The expected goals forecast (1.8–1.2 in Fluminense's favour) suggests a competitive match where the hosts' home advantage provides an edge, though a draw remains plausible at 22%. Both sides should create chances, but Fluminense's superior projection in front of goal gives them the statistical lean.