Coritiba FBC v 
Cruzeiro EC
The model’s call
Coritiba win 48%
Draw 23%
Cruzeiro win 29%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.5–1.0
Both teams to score 50%
The read
Our model favours Coritiba FBC to edge this Brasileirão clash, giving them a 50% win probability at home. The hosts are backed by their home advantage and slightly superior expected goals (1.5 to 0.9), suggesting they should control possession and chances. However, this remains a competitive fixture with Cruzeiro EC well-positioned to frustrate or catch Coritiba on the counter, reflected in the model's 26% away win probability.