Chapecoense AF v 
CR Vasco da Gama
The model’s call
Chapecoense win 35%
Draw 27%
Vasco da Gama win 37%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.4–1.5
Both teams to score 57%
The read
Our model slightly favours CR Vasco da Gama in this Brasileirão clash, giving them a 42% win probability compared to Chapecoense AF's 34%, with a 25% chance of a draw. The away side's edge reflects their underlying form and quality metrics, though the expected goals tally of 1.4–1.6 suggests a tight encounter. The most likely outcome according to the model is actually a 1-1 draw, highlighting how close this fixture could prove to be.