CR Vasco da Gama v 
Mirassol FC
The model’s call
Vasco da Gama win 41%
Draw 26%
Mirassol win 34%
Likely score 1–1
Expected goals 1.2–1.1
Both teams to score 47%
The read
Our model gives CR Vasco da Gama a narrow edge at home, with a 40% win probability compared to Mirassol FC's 34%. However, this is a closely contested fixture—the 26% draw probability reflects the tight nature of the matchup. The expected goals tally of 1.3 to 1.2 suggests a low-scoring affair, with Vasco's home advantage providing marginal support in a competitive encounter.