Santos FC v 
Chapecoense AF
The model’s call
Santos win 61%
Draw 16%
Chapecoense win 22%
Likely score 2–1
Expected goals 2.2–1.1
Both teams to score 58%
The read
Our model favours Santos FC to take all three points at home, assigning them a 61% win probability against Chapecoense AF. The hosts benefit from home advantage and are expected to create the better chances, with an xG of 2.2 compared to their visitors' 1.1. However, there is meaningful uncertainty here—a draw or away win combined account for 40% of the model's distribution, so Chapecoense cannot be discounted entirely.