SE Palmeiras v 
CA Mineiro
The model’s call
Palmeiras win 68%
Draw 14%
Mineiro win 18%
Likely score 1–0
Expected goals 1.7–0.6
Both teams to score 35%
The read
Our model gives SE Palmeiras a commanding 66% win probability at home against CA Mineiro. The hosts' advantage is built on strong home form and a clear expected-goals edge of 1.7 to 0.6, suggesting they should control both possession and clear-cut chances. CA Mineiro's away record appears significantly weaker, leaving them facing a tough test despite the 15% chance the model assigns to an upset.